When considering the vastness of the universe, it can be quite difficult to believe that we are the only intelligent beings that exist. The Milky Way alone is home to more than 200 billion stars, almost all of them orbiting planets yet to be discovered…
If we consider that there are at least 100 billion galaxies in the known universe, not counting the galaxies that we have not yet observed, we can assume that there are billions and billions of planets which are waiting to be explored.
With the technology they have today, scientists and astronomers have only been able to find a small group of planets that they believe may harbor extraterrestrial life. However, it is foolish to assume that all extraterrestrial civilizations could be benevolent.
It is for this reason that many scientists are concerned about new NASA projects aimed at transmitting messages with our location and information about all inhabitants.
So what are the chances that these life forms are malevolent? Well, a new study provides the answer to that question.
4 Dangerous Alien Civilizations
A new study tries to determine how dangerous it really is to try to contact extraterrestrial civilizations.
According to this article, there are about four “evil extraterrestrial civilizations” in the Milky Way. We could probably send 18,000 interstellar messages to different exoplanets in our galaxy and the probability of guaranteeing our own destruction is the same as if a catastrophic global asteroid hit Earth.
The article is titled “Estimating the Prevalence of Malevolent Extraterrestrial Civilizations” and is written by Alberto Caballero, PhD student in conflict resolution at the University of Vigo in Spain.
He is also the author of another study published in the University of Cambridge’s peer-reviewed scientific journal International Journal of Astrobiology earlier this month, which looked at the origin of the famous WOW signal!
Mr. Caballero says he had to make certain assumptions that make it very difficult to know if his calculations are correct.
To carry out this study, he researched how many external “invasions” there have been on Earth in the last 50 years, that is, countries have invaded other countries.
He then took that data and applied it to the number of known and estimated exoplanets, as well as the number of potentially habitable exoplanets, according to Italian SETI scientist Claudio Maccone’s estimate that there could be up to 15,785 civilizations in the Milky Way.
Caballero concludes that the likelihood of a hostile alien race invading Earth is low, very low.
“The probability of an extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization to which we send messages on its planet is therefore two orders of magnitude less than the probability of a collision with an asteroid which would kill a planet, which is already an event on 100 million years,” Mr. Caballero wrote.
He also explains that it’s likely there is less than one dishonest alien civilization in the Milky Way that also masters interstellar travel, which would make it a so-called “Type 1” civilization.
The doctoral student told the digital magazine Motherboard that as society became more advanced, there were fewer invasions, which suggests to him that alien civilizations capable of destroying the Earth would have less desire to do so as they become more advanced. technologically progress.
“I made the article based solely on life as we know it,” Caballero said.
“We don’t know the minds of extraterrestrials. An alien civilization may have a different brain chemistry and lack our empathy or more psychopathological behaviors. »
“I found this way of doing [the study], which has limitations, because we don’t know the spirit of what extraterrestrials would be.”
“I think unfortunately it’s still a pretty secret topic, no one seems to want to talk about it. There’s this fear of being scared to send messages, but there’s very little research on whether it’s actually dangerous to do so. »
Mr. Caballero is aware that this is not necessarily the most sophisticated science, but he hopes, through his study, to start a conversation on the question of whether it is really risky to send messages in space.
“The fact that the estimated probability of an alien invasion is two orders of magnitude less than that of a collision with a planet-killing asteroid should open the door to the next step, which is to organize an international discussion to determine the conditions under which the first serious interstellar attacks will occur. »
“A radio or laser message will be sent to a potentially habitable nearby exoplanet,” Caballero concludes.
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